Tightening the (fishing) net around Fotino

The fate of Fotino is better understood today. Based on deployment simulations including the MASS/Fotino attitude behavior, matched to DIMAC data, it seems likely that Fotino went through a rather nominal release and re-entry, and there is no reason to believe it would not survive:

- At the end of deployment, the shock was small enough not to induce full rotation of MASS/Fotino so the Fotino was probably not entangled in the tether.

- At the time of Fotino release, the Fotino was properly oriented and tether forces were optimal for separating Fotino effectively from MASS (similar to best case parabolic flight tests)

- At the time of Fotino release, Fotino's angular motion was less than 30 deg/s [See image below]

- In the worst case of a 30 deg/s rotation at atmospheric entry, simulations show that Fotino stabilizes in time at 105 km altitude, and oscillates around the nominal stagnation point by about 50 degrees, which is still within margin. The simulated heat flux is still significantly less than that tested in the plasma chamber. [See image below]

Based on matching of the deployment/re-entry simulation to the YES2 deployment and DIMAC data, the red ellipse in the map provides an indication of the currently suspected Fotino landing area.

Did Fotino land in the Aral Sea? Fotino floats, but could not be made waterproof. It would explain why the beacon signal was never received as it would not survive for the 2 hours required to be picked up by ARGOS. However, Fotino would likely have floated to a shore, so that is where it may be found. Remember, there is a financial reward for those who find it :)

The indicated zone is NOT FINAL, because the simulations have not been completed yet. It is expected the estimate can be significantly improved based on future results. The red zone is for the case of successful or slightly delayed release of Fotino from MASS at the end of the swing. The orange zone includes also the case of release failure. Originally intended landing point (Tasty Taldy) and launch site (Baikonur), as well as the Russian Center of Expertise (Samara) are indicated.